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So today is a special global ecosession
Again so this confesition is gonna be in english as jane just introduce um
And i'm very happy to have mark robbins as our guest
The day today professor robinis is a guest professor at the institute for ggloal public policy in fooan university
Um
And so he's a scholar with studies
Public finance
Tax preferences and how government spend money so in other words
Um
Those invispecial architecture that shapes our daily life
But
But me a professor robbins is also a friend
Who would come over for dinner and uh ended up babysitting and daughter um
Somehow between the two or plus
We found a way to talk about suppof the questions facing young people today
Welcome professor robbins
谢谢你听我的
跟
跟你们说话
因为听我不可以说中文
所以我们会用me before to me this milmillions can spea little in chinese
But since we are getting sometimes leyou
Mamamamayengenglilish
Thank you much much
Know know
You like
Like mamaured in psychology before shifting into public fintions like condifferent finworld one stustues es mind and feelding of individual works at least
That's my understanding of psychology and the other studies
How millions of mileling of money is spent
So how did you make that careers
Which ch in the very beginning here
I don't think i made that switch
Because i saw you are connections with psychology
But um studying psychology does is the fits in the world of social sciences and prepares you for the ability to
To ask questions and a systematic way and
And investigate and you are social environment
And so a lot of that applies
When you 're asking questions of public policy
And
And how because
Because asasking questions about how society oought to organize itself to deliver certain
Certain goods and services to society
So i don't think they are
You know they're not related elals
But certainly a student that sktting a batterst degree and psychologies preparing themselves for
For many different things
One of which could be a career in studying your public policy
So do you feel like um your psychology background
It is influencing your like a research later in some way sure
Ah i think it definitely shaped my taste for research questions
A lot of the work
My research partners
And i'have done over the years
I've been looking into questions about what structures people's preferences for retaxing and spending in society
What kind of programs
People willing are
Are going to paper um all of that has a lot to do with behaviorpsysychology
Really the taste preferences are something
That psychologists are curious about is what okay
Okay
So um let me try to since we are going to talk about like how mostly how people's money is spend at how we feel about it today
Ook ay so 啊translate some of the jordans of your field into very plaan language
Because i believe many people today here are like me
But we are experpert this field ld uh first tax aversion uh i feel like is the feelwhen you look at the detection cocolun physcical illuluuh thouthouthethere's no connection between uh the teoyou h but acservice
You receibut
But actually there is freraing effects like building schools for our children's future thousztyes better than uh raising property taxes
But actually both mean asking you to pay out
And the last lines like fiscal into generational acqucy um that existential question
Now i'm paying to support today's elderbut
But i owed will there be anyone left to score me
Because did i pass the test or did i have missed thers
So so there a lot of things
They are think you are you get a passing grade okay
Certainly the idea of tax i version is this notion that presented with accost
That we are required to great so um there don't a chochoso will tend to dislike that right so is universal across cucutures
So people did plike xxbecause i think there's lots of reason for that
But one is just because they don't feel compelled to i think think thethey don't not always see a connection of it
You know the things they would like to see to support
And what what they personconconsume
Um so so so yeah
We've we
We furt that is tax aversion
What that means in the research
Though that any time the word tax is used to describe a policy or a new
A new propostion
That people are more posed to it
Than if you describe it in some the way
Um so if you've left that word out of the description or conversation seems to be tritrigger word in some ways for people
That cause them to reject a proposition
Before they've even had a chance to think through what it implies uh um so that is like framing effects
So that's right that relates to that last item of framing effect
So if you can design a way to have a conversation about a proposal
But frames is in different ways you end up
Seeing different responses to people
Both in their support for parposition or maybe they are participation in an evenge or in in their voting behavior
So that's what framing effects have to do with fiscal illusion is the in the
In the literature really refers to the idea of uh of a disconnect between people's understanding of the fact that they are paying attacks
And
And the actual reality of paying attacks in other words of if
If you
Some people may be paying attaxes without realize it
That's the fiscal illusion
So that can occur with some kinds of taxes a very commonly for things like import duties or things
Where you may not see that you're paying that um may be builbuilin in the way way depending on how a value added tax is designed consumers may not be confronted with an extra cost of they pay
They may not realialize their paying it
And so if you the more that you reveal the actual cost of that tax less supported people are about the tax
That's what that fiscal illusion kind of refers to
So i actually academist understand this one here
Oh
So it's more
It's not
Not so much about the tax
You already pay ah h don't see the connection bebeeen en twtween taxy alalready
And
And the services you receihere
It's more
Like you are not aware
Sometimes like you like the invisible taxes that you have paid it's h so the pretty more information can change people
Sometimes it's sponices to the policy
Your popotion okay
So what about the last one
That was the friend effects fiscal in the generational epozand
That's important
So the intergenerational equity is this idea that when
But any new policy or policy change
You creates winners and losers
You're going to typically you're collecting some revenue from one group of people and and through some sort of program
You're creating sates an educational program
You are delivering services to others
So a thinking you do with the of the policy is going to have create some disruption in how benefits and costs are shared across people in different ages
Age groups
So um the idea of intergeneration liquity would be that no was people go through their lives in society
That they are paying their fair share of the burden of the costs as they impose on that society
And when your example about paying for retirees were we arted now um heah that would classify as kind of a violation of this notion of intergeneration eleguate
Because this transfer means that somehow we didn't design our programs right
So that no ideideally a social insurance program
If i'm working now
I am paying money
I'm paying now should recover the costs of providing services to me later right is i'm imposing you new my additional year of work imposes obligations for society to pay me later
And that money should be set side at the time that i'm working right
And if it's not then
Then
Then we say that's a viotion of intergengeneration equity
Because it means that when i'm all someone else has to pain my way that money is not there for me
The way it should be had i paid my share or having my employer paid the share for me at the time that i gibut so the more fair version is like i'm not paying for my future
That
That is more uh
What we expand
I think that they're lot of choices about how to design this programs
And certainly the most neutral to interintergeneration equity is the example you describe
But uh any of these choices we make
好的好的
Can can shift that relationship right
Though increasing the generosity socisocial fare programms to beneficiaries
Now that affects intergenerational likely
Because it does put more for burden on younger people um in other places and in the united states
In europe
We've adjuacments in retirement age making a little later that shifts in your generational likely the other way right
And weving it back towards you know benefical al to younger people
So that they're paying more for their own retirements in less fur
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Currently terrories hh okay
I feel like only i only got a six days
A six out of the uh one hundred grades
So let's go deep parted um
I feel like your reconarors everyah uh offering a parof of length for the ordinary people
And uthink those lengs on you can see clearly how microeconomic policies trickle down into our daily lives
So for young people are busy working and paying off loans so ffeing ing quite anious ous day
Yeah
Do you think what's the value of spending one hour listen n our poadcast uh and putting on those length
The value of begging deeper into these kinds of questions
Yeah
I think it's the one bias
Because i'm a college professor ors
So i think it quite to be able
And think more clearly insystematically about the questions were facing in our lives
I think that these kinds of explorations can how people have a better understanding of the world around the men
What causes their cirmstanances change
So uh i think this are are valuable conversations for people on their daily lives
Yeah
Maybe this question we should leave it to the audience to find out later earth the end of our uh conversation so um
But my my daughter as you know just entered kindergarten and uh this year governgovernment were mentioned that free for final year and kingdergarden um and the first reaction of some of the bonds uh around me just the free for one final year
What about the first two years
And also if the if it's for free will the quality of education job um so professor you study preference for public uh spending what do you think like h when the government spent money on something like free for a final year of kindergarversus
They just giving cash to young parents uh
Which will give them a stronger sense banands important step back
And think well about these kinds of programs with the what the outcome is that society ultimately wants from these choices
They are making about giving a good about education design or providing no free or discounted and kindergarden think like that theis the question you know
Because there's lots of things going on
When you're providing kindergarten services to defend this one
Yeah
One is you're providing child can um
Another is providing some sort of education benefits consumed by other famililies
So you might design these programs differently depending on what the goal is another suggeal of what's with socichilty and ah is to you increase virtilal crutility rates so people have more children
Yeah
So depending on what the choice is can affect those outcomes differently
Generally
When you're talking ing about something of a ilyear oknow yeah
Derease in the cost of categds or final year
Why is that i think so quite
Yeah
This are that is interesting
But so it suggests that they're trying to know decrease ase the overall cost of raising a child
But um kind of short duration policies like this
Often don't have big behavioral changes
Because they're not large enough to change
People's no decisions about doing something like you know spending them in the eighteen or more years raising a child to college
People don't feel like there's a bbck difference from this uh this single policy so why is that
That sometimes governgovernment spend money
But people don't really feel it like uh this policy
Policy for example
We have think about the constraints that governments operate on dirt
That y're always a limit to how much you can do um based on how much revenue you can get in order to provide the services that you want people and
And so forces choices upon governments about how generous to be with these kinds of policies and so so yybe tratrade of that you is so so ybe great to rive free kindergarten everyone
But maybe we're going to try to see if we can afford to to do a year of kindergarten
And see what the responses so policy innovation sometimes to means trying something that you can afford
Even though you might have more ambitious calls that talking about children and everything
There's this uh tendency not only in china
But i believe in many other countries more and more young people h decide not to have kids so prese or around this so so ybe actually uh child free
Child free for for by ice uh
But i can tell as a friend that you actually like children
I
Sometimes you will even share with me
Your holding a child hands of uh
That is your friends child uh
Um so would you like to share a bit about that personal choice um not having kids sure
Yeah
For some reason lots of my friends with children
Well um give their children to make aviese um i'm happy to do that
But it seems like it's sure
So would you like to buy it
That i know something about it
But i don't but take sure how lo kids
I think it maybe it's um the parents bias you of the world
That people that don't have kids papay joken
Now i don't think that mayybe be a some of think good um you know it's a choice like any other about how to spend your resources as as a family
And what you think you are particularly good at um i just happened to have a family that had no very close to my siblings
Who had children and to the great job
And um no i was happhappy uh uncle marlauso h dididn't seem like
But what acwas like my career and what i was doing that
That was something that i could do
Better that another people could do
But here i find a very interesting contrast uh you and your wife are taking care of your mth th both in their nineties that's um
And i remember last year is it seriouthe year maybe even before last year um ui devoted significant time and energy to taking care of your brother in law
Who's very seriously sick um you are not some uh idle retire man uh who you actually have a lot of things going on in your own career and life
But you actually like that time in energy
You put in to taking care of the
The husband of your second sister
I remember uh actually i'm very impressed to me
It sounds like some very close high investment family bond um
But only other hand today in in the chinese society
But young people are actually getting more and more distance from their parents um my along other family members um my mom actually told me the other day about something she read online day
Uum
Uh was the last generation to um to
To take care of their parents
And the first generation to be abandoned by their kips
Um i think actually tald some truth
But um
Yeah
But we don't
Both of us don't really
Really comcomfortable about that um of course it's
I believe it is not simply
Because young people today are bn to be more selfish
There are on the line social reasons um
So as someone who i find to be a very responsible family person
How do you regard um this phenomenon do you think it
This is a some inevitable cost of uh economic development
I'm
You know most societies um most developt countries still have this trend over time where um families tend to live together
Less
Because of economomc opportunity and ffluence
I think um you find that even if families live in the same city
As people have more resources
They might use those resources to do things like create more space um
And that includes more space between generations
So i think that's often a choice
Um
But
But also it
I think that mobility has a lot to do with that right just becomes much harder to be particularly attentive to the duty to your parents and family
When you
When you have a career
That's
That brings you know living thousands of kilometers away from where your family
Where where your family
This
So that's not
That's not always a choice
And you're going to make the choice to follow the career opportunities that create the best possible circumstances for your media family
Also
And it means moving somewhere else
And so mobility increases as societies
Wealth increases
I think that's generally true around the world
I don't think china's meuning from that
Although is a deepenly green family culture
But that would be ashamed to lose as a result that that's also the case to sulthat i um more young people are getting more distance from their family
I mean
I think that happened several generations
Ago i think about my older family generations
Liwere more likely to have um some older family genmbers living within when they were growing up
But there's generation he will becoming adults in the nineteen
Fifteen
Fifand
Yehave went about that time
There was a big explosion in housing
And people tended to move into their own places
Maybe um nearby their extended families
But separate from them
And you know that was stop the time
So when my my own grandparenwho will became infirm
They were no less likely to move in with one of the kids
It would likely be cared for in their own homes
By
By those kids shored by someone else mobility as you said is an important factor
Much less convenient for people who actually want to take care with their parents
Um h like in your case are
I feel you are living into different cicities
Right partly partly convenient to take your mom
Because florida is a very sunny and warm place
While boston where you uimportrenwork
嗯is actually uh colder
And not that ah h whether
Whether
So i feel like mobiliis definitely a factor
But not all
But have like asian china
Although mostly like a people
People stay ying a big family
But sometimes they will also go very far to maybe pursue their korea in a capital city
And
But they say like 在不远远fooooso they have this
And when the papats ts um parents died
They will come out way
And
And in the capityears or something um
So i think it also has something to do with ideology
Like the modern ideology for example individual or like you
You need to put the your own like a moalize self indialization
What would you think soft realization certainly is you know a important norm
And i think think lots of cultures developed that
And find it more or tasteful
But done
Um what they're
What their traditions are
But um yeah think that more cultures have to make room for people to identify who they are and what they anna be yet
But it's complicated when you have these family duties to multiple generations
But um it's very hard to purchase page
If you don't have economic resources
That's what people do move to all the places
That our parents hope will move to noted to be successful
But
But yes yes
But lots of reasons that we go back and forth between two cities and certainly one of the considerations is having parents that live in two different places
But
But you're also right people in boston like to go somewhere warm
When it's called so i here
When i was in dougetan
I actually met to a shopkeeper
And was asking about what the winter weather was like
And she told me
Oh
I had no idea
I was going to sanyyah
So i think that's true here to so if you are to uh you study like a public budgeting
If you are too design a small family support on uh
How would you spend it
But h giving
Maybe giving cash to to your parents or uh a kekey was
Was condesign a public policy to help
To to to help made me make the cost of family responsible
It's is not so high
Yeah
This there's a surprising matter
Research about this actually in
In they particularly having to do with no child raising and trying to increase ftility rates okay
And so i guess i've been informed by some of that works interesting the effects of those policies suggest
That there are really two kinds of of ways
That you can affect people's decisions about family size in particular
And youknow this kind of one time your short term things like a baby bonus are a cash incentive
That might that you know families
All families appreciate having suspetra cash
But not surprisingly the evidces is pretty weak
That those kind of one time cash gifts to families make a big difference in terms of the size of the families
That they ultimately built um what it does show us that might change at the margins
What we call the temporal effects another words
If i we're to offer you know a hundred thousand chobin with a whole lot of money um it might if you have a baby by the end of the years
If you were plying ning to have a baby in the next couple of years
It might affect your choices sprike i know
So it might going
Going to have a child anyway
If we
If we those participate in program um we can have a new baby
And you know have a new car um you know
So it might affect people's choices in the
In the short run
We call this teperal al ffects that means essentially you're borrowing um from the future um this behavior you would have participated in anyway
Those kinds of one single shot programs are really going ansgethe question
But
But there those kinds of single shck programs don't have much influence in ultimately the size of in family size so in programs that would have been one one um in canada
In singapore
And places that have had some baby bonuses
Again you can see some um some change
And in the timing effects of birth
But not much change in familyeyes as a result
So if i was trying to design a way to actually help families
I think this is getting your question finways
I think i would be looking for things that be more dorable right
Maybe finding ways to be sure
That it's
It's a government responsibility to provide presschool for all families in a way that good persuade families that that surveraefis really going to be there
When they needed it
That's when you can really reduce the cost to family formation and a meaningful way
So if that's the barrier now on the other hand
You know the economic cost to raising a child isn't the only reason that people don't have children right
So that's the other problem when you're studying public
Public policy say they need to make sure that you identifying the things that really matter in phenomenon and the stustudy
The cost is only one factor right there's lot ts of reasreaspeople
People might know know surbring a child into the year
No
I survey my own students about that every year know know cost is one factor
But among the students that say they really not interested in having kids very often the stories that they tell it
But just that you know they feel kind of scard from the educational experiences
They had and felt very stressed
And maybe they are not yet ready to think of putting in child through those same experiences to they had ii think for people who are thinking in that way
They are actually very synthethetic people
Because i don't
I didn't
You don't like it don't not feel that way
Like i didn't um feel that way
When i don't actually have uh 是child like so to me
I really uh like i'm very
Very respectful to for people who actually already start to think a lot and feel a lot for their uh potential cyeah
Yeah
I often see videos discussing a lot um
Uh one time of education
I want to give my uh kids usually there are very young influences
Ers uutrying ying to think about whether they want to have kids or not um
So let's talk about something uh also very related a pension uh every time i see the news uh h pension has increased again uh ment section
Usually look like this uh first wave of reaction
Oh
Great my parents are getting even more second wave of reaction
So now i'm paying to my social security to support today is evenly
But when i retire will there there be anything left in the pool for me um
So you study into generational equity
As we just said young people paying social security to support today's um
Elsley is essentially a intergenerational contract
How can we believe like uh we we
We lathere will
Will uum something laughuh we will also be supported by the next generation
How to do this kind of trust
We can observe directly
Whether how well these kinds of programs are funded
So i think you're right
That if the only thing that happens in a and h social insurance program
Is that you increase benefits
Then Yeah
Someone has to pay for those
Then question becomes who pays
And how do they pay
And so if the burden
If the payments have to come exclusively from the working age population through their um and social security contributions
Then clearly
That's a transfer of burden on to ymployers
So if the
If however know there's lots of other ways to design um
And you can change the contribution rates of employers um
And you can do other things in the benefit structure to make those no payments less burden some some question about whether those resources would be there
When you need them is a fiscal and accounting a problem
We can observe how much money has been set aside
And whether it's sufficient to grow to pay the benefits that are going to occur out later
So um you know there's fiscal transparency projects uh and in china as in most other countries that can allow you to observe how well funded those programs are
And whether they are it's sufficient to be able to pay future benefits
You know know history of these social insurance programs for pensioners really came out of dramatic changes in um um what have become complicated because of such dramatic changes in life expectancy right so in a very short period of time
People's life expect and see is gone from you know forty to eighty years
And
And in probably one hundred years
Very hundred and hundred and fifty years
The most so how that has made it more complicated to design these programs that were originally created
Just to protect people in their old age
You would become too old to work right
So you typically would think of the old age insurance
Insurance programs is actually insurance
And what you're being inshort against is the unlikely insurance that you live longer than your 对
Your physically able to work right so that was the problem and in the us and europe was that um people's life expecctccy increasing
But they were becoming too craill to work at some point
So what ended up with all these people
That we ended with lots of people
Marriage
The living in poverty in those societies
At the time is those ems were created
And so that was what they were trying solve and in the circumstance
And that that paup into the people and small small number of people are going to claim the people marties
Because the resources were ressigned to kick
And you know essentially the verage at the average life expectancy for people
Oh
So yeah
They are sureness
That that resources going to be there for you
When you become older
So that depends on how those programs are designed
And whether the contributions are going to keep up in a way
That makes it meaningful
But you can
You can okay um by the way just something not directly relevant
I recently i find like a comments like people in the
Some people in the usa
Actually started to believe people can like and not die
Like they can live forever
I think i'll be terrible thing
I've see comments like that um
Which seem kind convincing
But anyway is not very relevant
So this is the first part of our conversation
And we will take a small like taminist break
And we will go back
I actually notice like this year the um cost for milk tea and food delivery is going up a little bit
I don't know whether you guys have noticed about that
Because i need those kind of perent who is very cold
Like i pay attention to very small amounts of money
Um that's a big
I don't care that much well
Oh Ii pay
I pay attention
Um and some people say
It's because the susumption tax
Because um being adjusted
So that's a can confusing like when the government says the consumption tax is to be adjusted
Um that's can
Does the cost for on business or on us consumers
That's a good question
So we expeexpect in taxes like consumption taxes like the value y added tax um is a more common consumption tax
Here if that that cost is typically split based on what the nature of the good is that being taxed though for something like milk tea
There's the consumer that buying the milk tea and uh in the shop that making it and um tax effects
That relationship between the customer and the producer essentially telling the milk tea seller
That they have to pay more to produce milk tea
At at
At any level
So you know
If you have lots of choices about where to go to get milk tea
Then you probably arren't going to pay that they have that tax increasase probably or fmore more on producer or will we wouldn't typically expect it
Makes it hard for milk tea shops
And you might expect to see one or two fewer
If there's a big effect one of the choices that we had make them deciding the amount of taxes to levy for consumption taxes or effects like you're describing
Whether it's going to change
Whose behavior is going to be changed by this tax and um
Do we care about the
The burdens that fall as a result
But yeah
The short answer your question would have been that this spread between the the consumers and producers in some way
Um
Um and the
The party that has the great ability to change the behavior has the great great ability to avoid paying that tax
That's usually you know that can be consumers in a short run in case
Like this okay
Uh like in the very beginning of our conversation
You mention there are actually some invisible taxes that we pay
But we don't realize
So i'm wondering
Uh for young people who are driving in shanghai
Uh want you the invisible taxes we pay
Ultimately become yeah
I'm not not claiming
That there are some the super dark secret taxes
That people don't know them
So i'may be clear about that
It's just that some are more transparent than others and the ones
That people tend to talk about the modish transprents
Tend to be things that they see the the price celt every day
So if you have in uh china doesn't i do this
But many countries have uh provinces that will have a special sales tax that you see
When you go to buy a good and um you can see
Whether that's increased or decreased
Ah if you have an income tax that structure
So that you pay in one large lump at one particular point of the year
That's a very visible tax
And so so people really hate those taxes
Because um there it's less visible
If you're just paying in small increments throughout the year and small pieces right
So it's less most visible
Sometimes we call it salient
It's less salient
Because you don't feel like your pain it as much in the case of of china and the income tax
That's
That's interesting
Because only about ten percent of households pay any income tax in china
So it's a small small amount of payers
Now new you're and and a household of successful and more likely higher income professionals
And you're more likely to pay it
Then maybe other people in china
But it's no 睡觉
Compared to the income tax structures around the world
China is is scued heavily towards the highest income partners
So most people don't pay
Or they pay very small amounts of the income aces
Or do the places ok
I see uh
So you've travelled a like uh from boston to shanghai and two other cities
What are the some of the differences in cities approach spending awards
If if
If you have your
Your genius world
A lot of places of no are cities around the world
Have very different spending needs for lots of different reasons right from 唱歌
Can be kind of the
The age or the the preparation of the workforce um and because
Because of infrastructure so just like of comparing boston and shanghai
Boston very small by comparison
But it's also very old so a lot of the areas where i live this towns surrounding boston are mostly two hundred years older than the country
Itself so they have their own traditions and um but the infrastructures also very old
Um so you are running city with very old infrastructure
It's very expensive to to do anything
Um so you don't get to see this beautiful shining new infrastructure that you get to see in china all the time
Um so you know it's borite way when you are tratraelelthat so many places that have um it seem to be that fluent countries
But the infrastructure looks kind of old warned out
And that can be no
It can be for tax reasons
But it also can just be because of the age of the soboy system and boston has been there for hundred years
And it's you know most it hasn't been replaced in one hundred deyears
And so it definitely feels different so infrastructure of the things that jump out at most travellers
When they come to china
A's amazing kind of future world here
And you see all the cleaning new infrastructure and
And buildings and transportation
Um so yeah
You don't see that most of the rest of the world
Uh because this has been everything happened s fast
And
And all once mean come the development of china modern earah i uh travel to the us on ten or eleven years um ago
And i already feel like it especially likes in cities like new york
Which i had a lot of expectation
I can't
You uh like my impression was it's kind old yeah
But this time i'm
I'm visiting it again has i just told you um
I don't know it is it going to appearing it older ten years old
About ten years old
Yes
Um um sure
Do you mean america's older cities technotely struggled with getting the resources nenessssary keep up um um as lots of tax of version
And in the us
One of the reasons is to research area
Because you know everyone is in the middle of struggle of how much resources to provide the government to do all these things that we want government to do
Want better public schools
We want better public infrastructure
And wereally concerned about the costs of improving environmental quality
And we're really concerned about wrding social services to and immigrants y people with mental health problems
And were trying to put money into a public health system
But the same time
None wce to pay taxes
So it's a struggle deciside
How much you know you're going picpick choose to get dso
We're definitely in the middle those those struggles
Now
So you study uh public preference for taxation and spending um from your observation
What do do younpeople um more willing to pay for in taxes
You know the poclarity of tax extends
They
They tend a very preportion with how much people think they pay that so
And whether it's fiscal illusion or not if it's not very clear that you're 're paying attacks
You might be more tolerant of it so in around the world
The
The value added tax tends to be um can
Can be popular
It's depending on how it structurres um like i say depending on whether europeying and income tax or one sumor not people like that less mom no one seems to really care for property taxes
But they are a lot of the world
The primary
Where the local government services are paid for for china of land sales pay for local perty
But in ltiple the world
Some some ort ort of some portion of the value of your property to what are assessed or regular local government services those tend to come to vary in terms of their popularity
Young g people tend end prefer to to see taxes paying in property taxes
Because they don't feel like they pay them specially they are renting home um um
Because you don't write and check yourself for the property tax
Um make people prefer have local government services paid for by property taxes
Of course
Not true economically um properts just go up
When property tax is increase
But it's again that's this idea of tax saalience as if you really don't see at um so taxes
You're writing a jack for that you are paying a builill for
Than it's more
It's more popular um so young
Today they are um so choosing the cities
Where they want to live um as critically as they
They are choosing like shangzi
We people say say uh we should escape from um h big cilike shanghai
Beijing
Shanginghang
Guangzhou
And go to other cities to live um for example like it's more hanggso are osing well cities to linice um personally i think the is smart to think like that um so what according to from your cities to live are some of the factors that would ultimately decide
Where people would stay like a salary housing price or are their nice cafes or parks
Sure all those things are no pushcial tors ors ether and people
Um people sort where they have choices
And you would expect that behaviors already going on certainly asked lots of the young fackal to the men ch ang ghhh this year
Wow
There what was most attractive about no taking a job
There is putea somemore else se and a lot of them mentioned the fact that they could a forrehousing
Um h that there's kind of
Because there's a kind of a national market for labor
And so you don't earn that much more or less depending on where you go to work
So they found it
But you suggest in no kind of favorable
Because they could get a larger apartments and maybe of still afford a car
Um not have to feel superstressed about about expenses
And um found the quality of life to be acceptable to that
So but different people have different tastes for cultural amenities
So you what you really care about our
And you being able to be i'll go to top brank kind of entertainment venues like one we're sitting in this afternoon smaller places don't have those some of those amenities so depends on what you want to do
Whwhther ther can can do it
Place place that gonna do it
But absolutely these economic factors matters when people making those choices by i can't in
And where cancan impose one particular package of factors
That's going to be motion important too sure
It's a difficult question
And also i feel like uh
If you for young people
If
If they're more inclent in night life life
It's also also factor that they can think think because
Cause in some cities like um for example ushi my hometown you have no lifelise no night life
Sorry like when it's um nine or ten like everyththink is
But of course a countries like new zealand
It's more extreme
I remember when i was there uh at four or five pm
There's nothing on the street
Everything is close
But in uh last year i travel to xi i an
And i didn't expect like the nightlife is amazing
Everything starts
Starts when it's uh like three pm and a last until next morning
I have your like
So i think that that can also be effect
I can tell them that i tri go you
So that's like no just ooccasionally you would take a place
It hadn't 't
And if you had your choice like like my night night i'm a morning person
So i don't
But it's just occasionally that's very exciting sure
Yeah i know the same thing and junsha i have have
And they it because it's so hot
And had a lot the year that having more things open ing night was a practical necessity
And yeah became a culture um it came to me
Because uh you mention changshi
And i feel like it's also a city with
With nightlies um okay
So how do you think uh since we are talking about the city lifestyle um kyou think um comfortable city
Balanced being
Functional and beautiful
I do things like uold architecture and new exhibitions
Places like this um things don't directly generate gdp part of the city's long term invebasstlight
So thinking another way to frame a question is how
How is it
That we experience all of the
The value and benefits of a cultural architectural amenities of a place
I think then ultimately these things do end up in our economic measures
Shell often through things like housing price right to the reason that shanghai has such high housing prices isn't just arbitrary ridts
Because people move here
Because of the credible opportunities for
For jobs
Educational immendities or the really good schostols or the great cultural opportunities are the or
Or the
The night life for the effect of of of the shopping
And know know all of those things are easily transferable place place place h and we see in also in housing prices
If you are close to a park
Place are close to a very desirable shopping district
Or enclose your distance to a subway
Stop all of those things tend to get revealed in higher housing prices per square meter
Then if they were absent
So really those you can observe the effects of these things have um maybe not in the gross domestic product
But certainly on um on housing prices as a proxy for what people care about and pross or rorobins
So um uh your field is public famanes
But you are a big literature in new the east
Um so what do you think is the value of reading literature uh our organize today
And what are you reading this day are you reading something ii am
But i guess the but the value of to me
And this is very idiosyncratic
I guess
But i mean i'm being value of reading in literature is that is just one of the few experiences
You have where you ok be put into the perspective of a come of another person right
Thank it
My bibisurprised saying the things that people then reading love literature may be more epththetic
May be able to see more perspective with people then because really don't get the opportunity and be another another person in your normal life
Great
It's impossible
So it's liliit ted
Our interactions with people so how deeply it takes a long time
Because to know someone well enough to understand and
And their personally going through how they see the world so and way to get other views of the world
It's to throw your hanand you know the skilled hands into the novelist or an author that can share with you
What the world looks like to another person
Most of us can't travl ly replace in the world
And get to know people deeply in all of those places so yet to me ii love literature for average
And it takes me haof myself and puts me on another person
I'm reading right now reading i was word dock whoa philosopher actually and writes um
But who's also when ououl less sit was i've not also haven't read so maybe i should go back and read those
But she writes um
There's kind of the context of cognition and moral philosophy and raises
Questions about where notions come from that make a society feel late
People are have values or are good or not so i've been reing bxks you wrote nineteen suddenly called the soreign nty of good
Which is worth a reread
We have read it
It since you to philosophy classes as a student um as well really good
Questions about or yet where these other notions come from about building a good society in being good people
Do you feel like uh once the difference of uh terms of seeing from another person's perspective
How does that difference from little job yethink you can find the same thing
I just for me in the way i experience reading i guess
I find that much more intimate experience than being entertained in a film
Iid feel like have to put more cogniant power in the regon to in order to get the book to work in my brain
I have to think of myself as this person where you very often accounts in the first person are
Are writitten to trick you into few in that way way now my
I just think it's aa different level of empathy bill in with occurs in that way
And 对对对
Also no a lot of modern movies are really concerned about and with the building in people share your views
There's much more no smash and grab affairs with great lights
Explosions make entertain us another times like the difference between pleasure
Enjoyment
Enjoyments
Take some efforts
Sometimes like uh you need
Sometimes like uh to de to make you dealy try to understand the character or something instead of just uh yes a fact about by the
By the video or the um feel or something right
That's the passure we can easily gain i guess
I do share that
That's nice idea
I have got of it just that way
But absolutely difinfintely do i think don't more empathy by having to work for a little more than then you might if you're just being presented something in a
In a belieree can of flash great
嗯哼
Um now okay
So so so much for little shrend that's move to something very different and a bit contradicory uh about wororing money so um
When when we are borrowing money for example using 花呗and some young thing in china
Like as you already know it to
To buy ourselves a new phone
We feel like um we are enjoying life in advance
But when a government borrowers um for example the government issues
Sponds to raise a high speed rail
Um
People will think like um that makes our descendants to pay the down and what should they so could you explain a bit about such very imposing attitudes towards borrowing money
Oh
Back into intergenertional lequity again so this this interintergenertional lequity day uh so and then the method borrowing can es the way you pay for things like capital infrastructure like trains and bridges and roads
Can have big effects on and a generation likely but usually we think of this in terms of usome benefits test
And how well you matched the benefits that people are receiving to the payments
And when they pay them
And i kind dn't feel that things like you issuing bonds and borrowing money
Aged by to build a bridges
And subways anyding on how they're payfor they can
They can satisfy that in a generational liquity idea pretty well
Because rather than making no
If the alternative is we're going to pay for it all today
Out of
Out of taxes that we raisse today
Um spreading those payments over times also spreads them over the beneficiaries of h ross the tiger
And when they're using those resources
So if you are building a bridge for three generations of people
Um bring the payments over
Over generations memeans each
Each
Each generations paying their fair share would
Oh
So that sense
That might be an improvement to
To benefit equity or intergengenerational equity compared to paying for monmonlump
Sump t hh
Yeah
So it's a fair thing
It's a fairness issue
It's also makes it possible to do more things
Once
It's not generally to to conspend hundreds of millions of dollars come um exconchard project can be very hard to come up with ject or once since still have money to do all the other things are supposed to do
So ok
So also budgeting project that ofofhave to borrow gh to
To build warorm to be expensive project um ooay so listening to the talk
I have this feeling that like isoas as anxiety ty from from like regarding our selselas like isislated indiindiduals and thinking our problems come uum comes from not working hard enough 啊
But actually lot of problems are systematic
And um a lot of pressures are test down uh some anger is caused by information bience
Um so for young people who are feeling constantly ground ded my life
Do you think understanding these can do some exexthelhelp them to feel less anxious
Some consideration of some of the benefits so these fiscal policies and how they're structure okay helhelps speak er to feel little less anxious about their world
Or feel like it's little else unfair
Or i think that's great
Yeah
Hopefully that takes one of the worries off the take
But i don't think people are running around
I me know terms of the
The high arche of concerns of households about much kicking him awake at night
I don't think that
Wow
You the the gazy equity of the british payment borrowing is very high up on the list
嗯哼
Usually i would think it has more to do with your own householddead and the ability to put your kids to school
And that's sorsomething
Ah Yeah
That that's that that thing doesn't go
Right right right
But um you've witnessed like different cycles in different countries
And uh personally carrying the weight of family
Family reresponsibility
Um uh facing this urban life
Where people as our topic today um jm b
Don't
Don't you double in which means let me exly
Don't
Don't wna compete anymore
But don't feel like giving up
Either do you have some wisdom to share with young people
That can help them to find a way to live
That is uh both repisible but not crush by it
I like to see young people give themselves permission to identify how to liin their best life
And you know that that made mean having a period of of being quiet and um
And withdrawing from the regular prescires of the world in some ways
And not that it can have to do that as an an alternative to having a career of it taking substanal time for your self reflection quesquestionthe world that's been given to you can be an important way to to find your happiness in in ways
That may not be apparent without taking that reflection time i mean so yeah
I like to see people take time off from there
You know even to to wait a year before starting career or to take a job
That doesn't seem like it's aa super career job in order to have less stress
I think those are legitimate choices finding it very hard to find in life the way to be happy
And there's not one solution to it think that finding ways to be quite
And take time out from from all of the incredible demands
That are placed on us
Some society is important gifts that we can give ourselves
That
That would really encourage young people to do take time out to reflect find out what really does make you happy
And how you might integrate that and your lilife regardless what you end up doing
My father was an usual person though in this regard
And that um i was interribly interested and go into college
I was young
And you know he just insisted in push that regardless of what you did
Whether you wanted to be building tables or um you know doing music that you wanted to become an educated perperbecause
Because this weem just give you more ways just have more career opsand ce necessarily but more ways to enjoy life
Right did you go to school
And you learn how to read the great books
And maybe spend a little time learning math
Even though you're not going to be a matthematician
Because um the world around you get a little bigger
Right um because you can participate more of it
So like not just looking at a chill anymore about the centy
Look at the arc of the back of that chair
I think i remember something about the rules of drawing shapes
Like that in the neon becomes a more interesting
Also though the benefit of exposing yourself to new sets of ideas whether in college or some other experience often create those special moments for you to see
She adds something that really i get excited about that gives me pleasure
Maybe i can make a career out of h you know furniture design
But i can spend more of my time seeing what furniture designers do or were going
Going museseum that specializing this
And you know so i would say yeah
Have don't find a way to have accurated life of experiences
That you've taken the time to see
Give you
Give you joy
Um take take the time to figure
Well
What that is
I think it's time must spend
I think most of us yet like a young people today are feeling scares in i went for dederived in many ways
Maybe not all not necessarily money
But also time and space
Room
Our own room
Something like that and i so listening to tonk
I feel like maybe being is more important than doing something
And to allow yourself in a state that you don't feel um so dequiite like you have to do something
Um you have to do something at certain time
But allow yourself in a state that you are
You can just do something not necessarily have a certain a very year goal to put it this dight way
Yeah
It's a kind of like a state you allow yourself
I think it's very hard and no in a competitive culture with so much pressure on us to give yourself permission to take a little time out
And
And do nothing that seems very uncharacteristic as the way to succeed in life
But yet to my way of thinking about the world that really can create great your opportunities for ininght define the ways that your life is going to be more more satisfiying
But sure scarcity ity is than my career
I councelled many new assistant professors over the years
Some more of things i would always tell them that know you're most important resource
You have in your life now is time right
And um should be explicit about the claims that are being made on that time
Because you have this you know for professors they have this ten year goal
That kind of a more office and doesn't come from many years
But kind of the time you get away along the way can 嘘create off against to your chances for success and happiness in other ways
And so you know
Make sure that you know i would say to know
Make sure you know when you're getting it up
So you're being asked volunteer on this group of that group um may seem like it's an easy thing to say yes too
But uh ah how you spend your time
You only have certain of of of time left this this
But so you know spend it well
So you're making it as if this is the last question
But we still have to a three um
Um how do how you um your research tells us like asking the right question is more important than just complaining
But how to
How to uh cultivate the that question asking capability
Um do you have any suggestions
Your question asking for ourselves or in our in uh in trance our uour society ty and my relationship to this
Oh
I think i some questions is important
Ation
I think that certainly in migra this structure of asking questions is important
Um when you're asking questions about policy outcomes youare asking how it is that society wants to deliver these goals for society and so end up having disstructure those questions be pretty nerrow al in order do the identify the ways that things really produced the goals
That's care about
Um order to have an systematic way of thinking about those questions becomes impimportso so of the my filt tratrained think think about of the economic plplications and determinations of of the various choices that will make
But question asking in dodoesn't have to be so farmal
I think it's important to be able
To just be sure
That the questioner asking is capable of getting an answer to the engthat sh care about is it like you have a kind of goal in asking
That question short usually you are trtry to find out
Whether a particular policy is going to produce what we care about in society
I'll give you one example of now there's lot of studies and in education
Lately where you're looking at the impact
Various
Various education reforms and um so for instance extending the length of the school day
Which believe it are not another parts of the world is as a consideration under review
I don't know that
It's physically possible to extenend the length the school of day china because sorsorso long
But but um
But ystudies wouldn't look at that
And but measory of them would be asking the question in terms of
Oh
Test scores for it
Would i add two hours a day to middle school follerns education
Does that improve their math and reading scores
If you think about it and the grand scheme of things
It's not really math and reading scores that we care about so much right
It's probably what we care about
We think about it would be no the
The well being of those
Those kids are their economic opportunities later in life for um
The ability of society to achieve certain things to um
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To inform um
You know good decision to making among the adults
Um So yeah
How you ask those questions really matters
When scholars looking at those questions started to change their focus
They ended up measuring things like lifetime arnings
How do these school reforms affect the ability of these kids
You know twenty years from now to have good economic outcomes or the changing the probabability of family formation things like this
So think that yet professionally the question asking as a you know should have more of a rigor to it
That's focused on sociede outcomes is opposed to just some of the easiest to measure things with things like just queslast one last question
Um
If you are to give our audience a action action guide like to uh if your young people want to change from a passive paransppayer to a actic participant in public life a what is the most feasible first step
I think it's really hopeful to understand where that public spending is going to have
Fina has lots of fiscal prank guarantee projects
Where you can find out how how public funds are spent and um how much money is raised
And so it's talpful and places complicated as shanghai
It's very easy to uh have some of that information
Yeah
There's what going on once
So it's helpful get get formed med what what with the city jeas and producers with all of the resources
That it collects se oh
Ok
One one real al last thers um are mentioned during this taland not not very casual conversation beaching us
That you are uh very satisfied with with your life
And i think you are living a life fll of inspiration
You are traveling a lot
And uh still meet a visiting new places
And your people um get talk and also listen to others
So as a person who's i think a opminded perperson his sixty ty do you think is the secret of staying young at hard and not being uh left behind by his or her time 这个头
Thank you
Thank o think that what i do think there's something to finding what it is that gives you energy and for me i really love being in china
And um meaning new people and hearing about the but their lives and being things that are questions to them
And so that's i've been able very fortunate to be able to spend more time here and and do that
But that's
You know that certainly comes at a cost you trade that off against time with family rather activities that you might want to do the shobbins
Yeah
I am strtainly very satisfied with my on choices
I'm not sure all the time that all of my family members would be as satisfied before my choices
So that is no part of what you have to be willing liberit so ah thank you much much
And thank you for sharing about all h information tion knowledge with us
Uh h your welis is and the contconttest and and and if can have the questions and ansand and can can some some proquestion
Rorotions
And and and you can can manussand and comsand and for comfaand my question is how to balance the tax ststding um
嗯to these two uh these two aspect ct
Because one is the long term and one is a short dedepand
The development come in my
In my point and social welfare will be more difficult to visualize and how to deal with when we spend a money on that
This is my first mattion and the the eent
The seconultion is relate to the education and nowadays
We can see the younger ers spding ding a lot of time in the k twelve systems
So noour kids has already jump out of the box um they squeeze the the school time and go to the society to the early such as the happy songs
We see the authorities of four kids teenagers they come to the comentition in the workand so for the students working hard on the k twelve system
They don't have a time to to get to this kind of society activities
How they to keep their repvies for themselves and find what they will love sayou very much
Wow
Feel be quested so first one's releaser
The has to do with the trade off on spending on um kind of targeted development projects like in ai and other new technologies
Versus
Social welfare spanding um those are difficult tradedofs at renation makes about where to put investments of public funds
If you're trying to no grow an economy and and build a society in some ways you
But they're very different
So if you are investing in industries
You are essentially baking big investments in and export economy
That is is going to hopefully help groan economy by my making new and better things and sharing them with the world that one one approach to so um presumably the people that are involved in making those things
Um to build wealth and income for the people in the country um social welfers no
So i guess one
We would think about that would be it can kind of increases the supply of uh of sociport good source services in the society near other hand
Um social good spending is more about demand sidespending in the sense that it gives people more resources to consume things
So if you're trying to build a consumer society
Where people have more economic inability to participate in all of the great thing society to have for offer
And often that's where you see increases and social welfare spending in which i would conclude things like child care support um support people
People in know know are all eight pensions
We're talking about public spending on these things
Um increased access to health care and mental health services
Those sorts of things
Those tend to to very quickly have returns historically on personal income in the societies that spend money on those
Because you have to hire people to provide those services
So um those are kind of explicit trade ops and depends on what's important to a country in its development
How it makes those those choices
But no know you to my personal taste and preferences
I like to see supports for
For people
More than supports for firms
But that's
Ah h that's a
That's a taste for kind of society
I'm supposed to um something that i've got in piracical support for being kind of socially optimal for every society
I don't know how to really answer
And
And how to conform the optimal choices of people that want to decide what to do with their lives and spploring splying labor to a society
And
And their education choices
Those are really hard choices
And really goes back to my thoughts before about how to find
How to be aa happy person first before you make all the revoicabable commitments to a career dejectorate so hi very sympathetic the idea wanting to to
To take time out that urab ration tense competition period in life have long enough to find who you are really want to be
Because you're kind of jumping in
I think those investments are really worthwhile
But people to making themselves condicled that i say everyreally secular in this is very sperring i'm together
So for my question of en ask from that leadbegons like you
So we saying the society there are lots at the right right that would pua good friend to concept that would say ai isn't to be friconcept that stys people's job s and should i talking about the topic that would see the tension pulosing to be lies in the future would
Would be the better on for the pertion to do
Would mame sure i start art to save money
Or should i start to some parleant job to make sure that
That has some a increase for economy
That would just people for you
Thank you
Wow
I think that's a great question
I think it sounds like you would benefit from having a some good conversations with all wife coach that's better qualified than me
But i think idea of trying to decide where to want investor time and resources now is is super important
Um
I think we all have that basic instinct of wanting to save money and put money aside when we feel uncertainty about the future
And then think that's really prevalent now here in china
And also the added states where people are really uncertain about what the world is to look like
And we're opportunities
You're going to be be
How ai is going to change their lives
So um hard default anybody from thinking they should just slow their consumption
A little bit and set more money aside from the future
What who knows what's going to happen with
With ai
And what it's impact is going to be like one first these kind of models came out
I thought it was probably bgonna be some kind of a bubble
That people thought was uoverrarated then ii myself uusing these ooools more more more
I don't
Don't know
Seem like thethey're going have have some value and know uh colleague
Who se whose a software developer and asasascham noisses mean that you're gona be out of a job
It goes no
But it doesn't mean that i'm not using
I'm not ginuusing junior gragrammers as much right because so that initial coding that you do
When you're starting up a project can easily be done by a large language model
Because software is language
But then said that it is the people
He's hiring that will be doing more advanced application work
You know those
Those jobs are stoggoing exexist
And maybe
Maybe itll ll a little more because you ver maybe having someone that's harnessing the advantages of ai and doing network
So i think we know i was shaking out um
So you know being cautious certainly switdently natural natural linstic
But don't think it should make you
Oh
Not
Not go through the self examination process of finding out how a how living good life
And samakes some delivered choices about that
And spend some time with someone that can really get to know you as a person
And um what the things are that of going to make you happy
And then next pse se your life worth th ininvestiment thank you a fessor runs uh two questions for one very very quick
Which a language model you prefer
And the second question you're going going to talk about the state global level taxes
What about fevoral taxes
You know that uh the us special spending even on interest is largethe dep sm and both
Both onto take on the future of out is the us doliment ate collapse is um match as as a as a individual industry of both us stted ted draw b big make what how should be balanced
If in the issue consider the future that's good question so well
Yeah
Certainly in the states has a fiscal problem meaning that we don't raise enough revenue to cover the our federal spending
And that's been going on for decades and kind of facing a fiscal cliff in the early twenty thirties
Because some of the big benefit programs that are supported by self funding are going to require public funding
If there's no changes made
So these are kind of social secity in medicare programs in the us
So that means that no
They're going to have to be being changes in tax policy or spending policy as result could that mean that those know that us currency becomes less valuable
Possibly
Certainly
I would expect that us debt will be carrying higher interest rates as it
It's perceived as little more risky in in those markets
Now i like to think that the economies can it continue to grow
And that that um ultimately decision makers will be confronted by a crisis
They can't avoid and will do some things
Because you can still solve this problem in the us
With some modest changes in kind attacks and spending polls
But you're wruum
They were the interest on the dedch and national defence spending are really crowding out everything else in the budget in the us now and so really requires someon adjustments
Um i don't know about how that translates to investment advice
It's hard
Because we have such a global economy
Big economy like the united states hard to avoid
Even if you 're investing in in in other tritriso so um something to to pay attention to it comes of my own ai models
I like i found
Found
Found add to be particularly hopeful
It's no organizing answers to as if the questions
If you can make them you complicated and uh
But now enough you can get good answers to point into good sources
Um also i don't know which model runs something that's called sight see ii am me
But that's a good
A good model for kind tting gathering up literginccitations
None of the programs
None of the models actually have um invested in new subscriptions to all of the
All of the journals
Resources say you would hope so h would inform your good answers to question
Scholly quesquesum
So you know they can put you
You adabtracts
You know they can search by titles and abstract of thanks to give you good answers
So so are are two good obbuse
Thanks to give you good obbuso so so honestly and governents and as the current fiscal model
It's gonna and will take traveler foods on ball uh
The diographhichange population shunk and the pension uh in the long run can not look us pass say in self and on the other hand
The municipand novel
The main income and land sales and prigraity cmmpies
But how that a fiscal model can will change and in the future
Now china is a you derobbing the fiscal outlook fortina correctly
I think think it's some choice to be made about how to raise enough revenue to find the local services and particular that governments need to meum
But there's lots of choices
One would be to to renegotiate the amount of um local government revenue they get share with the central government
So those
Those ices
Ices are 't always fixed in stone masome changes in ninenineties
And that reard ard
So those could be tweet again
So change
Change the revenue shares um between state and and governgovernments
But yeah
You're also right
Then land is not an infinite resource and local governments have kind of run the limit of how much land
They can sell to provide the resources for all the services that we like to consume here
So there's going to have to be about new sources revenue
But
But can come from lots of ways can come from um no broader ed income leacting
But the've been some small scale property tax uh experiments in china very unpopular
Uh know part of these have to do with feasibility of the input implementing them
Um h think think that changes in this structure
The value adin tax
The income tax
Property tax
I exstop all of those uh in addition to thinking about the formula revenue sharing ing
The the to are things so
So going to be under consideration on the next five in ten years
Here can chn ok so um
That's the end of our event
And thank you so much for ecoming
