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Welcome back to the deep dive
It is february
Twenty
First twenty
Twenty six and um
I was looking at the calendar this morning
And if the global vibe feels a little
I don't know vibrationally intense to you
Right now there is actually historical precedent force
You are talking about the lunar calendar
What exactly the year of the reor
That is the one
It is a sixty year cycle
So the last one was nineteen sixand sixty six i in chinese cosmology
This isn't just about you know energy
Your speed
It is specifically about the breaking of tethers
It is a combination that favors the rebels
The outliers
It is really sudden aggressive shifts in putting it breaking tethers is a very polite way of putting
Tting it
I have seen it described as a cleaning fire
And looking at the stack of documents
You sent over from the sunday blender
I mean the metaphor fits a little too well
It really does we aren't just seeing new tech releases
Today we are seeing the complete dismantling of the institutions that held the last deraade together
That is absolutely the threwline for today's deep dive
Because whether it is the legal framework of hollywood
The biological baselline of our oceans
Or the corporate structure of silicon valley
对对对对对
The firehorse is basically kicking the stable door down
Let's actually start with the stable door that gukkick down in semphsis go this week
The whole peterstine burker saga right on the surface
This looks like a standard for a big tech hires indie developer story
Yeah
But you flag this in our notes as a massive signal flair for the entire industry
It is
It is the definitive signal
That the chapbot era is dead long live the asian era so for the lisser who hasn't been obsessive trtrack get over over positors
Yeah
Peter steyburgger is the solar developer behind open law
He built a framework
That got something like one point five million active agents in a single month
Which is an insane scaling metric one guy y right but spspicy
And
And i loved t the corporate irony
Here is that he built the entirely on top of anthropics model
He was their biggest champion
I mean he was driving massive inference revenue to them completely unpaid of angealism and instead of sending him a fruit basket or a thank you note and throropics sent ent a seice dedesist over the name claud bot which was a fatal strategic air
Because while ethropics legal team was busy drafting trademark complaints open a ice recruitment team was drafting a massive equity package
Yes and as of the fifteenth steinberger is officially leading the personal agency division over at open ai
But let's double click on why this actually matters for you and me
Um
This isn't just about talent poaching in the valley
It is about what steinburgger actually build
Yeah
Because open clolot isn't a chat bot
It doesn't just predict the next token in a sentence
Exactly it plans that is the crucial distinction
Here a chat bot talks to you about booking a flight
An agent actually authenticates into the api
Checks your calendar
Finds the best price and executes the transaction
It takes action right
Stamburger crack the planning
Loop the ability for the ai to reason through a multi step process without hlicinating half way way through inforgetting
What it was doing
Which has to terrify the incombence
That the the valvalue moves to the agent
Because the thing executing the work
The thing underline model just becomes a commodity
嗯
And tropicc just becomes a utility provider like the electric company
While open ai with steinburger owns
The actual relationship with the user that is exactly yet
It is the commotitization of the brain and the premimization of the hands
Open ai is betting
That the future isn't n't
But who has the absolute smartest model
But who has the momodel that can actually do things in the real world
And this tension
This race controrolininfrastruture of doing
It was so visibly on display at the ai government summmit indiindithis week
Oh
The global south summit
This was so significant
Because it wasn't held in london or paris
India is really sitioning
Itself as the bridge here where they are trying to build the frontier model
Itself there building the digital public infrastructure
Where all these models have to live
But perfectly explaplagooggle fifteen illion dolllar check to india
That is not rnd money
That is infrastructure money they are buying the reils
But the human element at the summit was
Where the real story was for me
是的 好的
Did you see that group photo up with prime minister modi the awkward hands photo
Yes
It was physically painful to look at yeah
You has sam omen from open eee e daroleama day from anthropic
They were standing right next to each other
But their body language was just screaming get me at ded here they were visibly avoiding any contact
Whatsoever it is petty
But it is telling these guys are supposed to be collaborating on global ai safety
And yet they cannot even fike a smile for the camera
It really tells me that the commercial rivalry has completely eclipsed any safety cooperation at this point
Well
The firehorse doesn't do cooperation
It does competition and speaking of competition
If u us is fighting over software brains
China has clearly decided to win on hardware brwn
We have to talk about the robots
Because every year elon muaskets on a stage
And says optimists is coming
And every year we get a video
A robot folding at shirt very very slowly
Exactly
But the footage from the cctv spring festival gala in china was i mean
It was completely different
It was a massive flex
The spring gala is the most watched television event on earth
And this it wasn't some sterotech demo
It was a full bloog performance
You had human oids from unitary galbit and magic lab
Doing fully synchronied comforu routines right alongside human martial artists and backflips
Backflips
Complex sort handling dynamic reonance recovery
When pushed the message
They were senhim was very clear
We are not in the lab
Anymore we are out in the world
The for once most actually admitted um
I was reading the transcript to the tesla argings call from last week
Usually he just dismissed the competition entirely right
But this time he openly admitted no optimist robots are doing useful work yet
And he called the chinese robotics progress and ask kicker next level that is the highly technical terms as kicker
But why now i mean we have seen boston dynamics duthis this kind of acgraatic stuff for years
Why is this specific moment
The tipping point it comes down to the price point in the supply chain boston dynamics builds for orries
Why are beautiful incredible machines
But they are expensive unitory is building ciphfics s they are ving the costs down to appoint
Where these things can actually be deployed in regular factories and the financial markets in hongkong picked up on this reality
Immediately i saw that rotation the old guard of chinese tech companies like alibaba and tensent there were completely flat or even down
But the ai peer place zippo surged forty three percent minimax jumped fifteen percent in a day
Investors are actively dumping the web two poino giants and pouring other capsent in a day
To embodied ai
They genuinely believe the fundamental hardware problem is solved
Now is just a manufacturing race
So we have agents taking over the digital desktop
And we have robots taking over the physical factory floor
But the area that feels the most immediately destructive
And that cleanly fie since we talked about is the creative industry
How absolutely we have to talk about sea ents floor
I dance basically dropped a nuclear weapon on hollywood
This week i watch h the clips they released
And we are not talking about the uncanny valley will still myth eating ings begheti monerarocities from two years ago
This footage is indiststuuishable from a two hundred million dollar marvel movie
Did you see that viral clip of tom crews fighting bread pit in a wafful house
I did the dynamic lighting
The fluid physics
The voice cloning
It was completely leaflawlest
And of course the motion picture association is already screaming about copyright infringement disney in paramount sent legal threat letters almost immediately but here's my actual question to you
You actually put this back in the bottle red reece
The guy wrote dead pool who is not a dumor by nature at all
He literally went on record
And said it is likely over for us
He is right
But maybe not for the exact reason
Most people think the disruption here isn't just that the ai generates good video
It is that the marginal cost of production is going to absolute zero for a century
Hollywd's main mote was that it cost hundreds of millions of dollars to make a massive spectacle
Now a teenager in a basement can generate that exact same spectacle for a twenty dollar monthly of description
It reminds me would happened to music distribution back with nabster
But this is happening to the actual creation process itself exactly and look at googles project genini
This didn't get quite as much mainstream presses the video stuff
But it is arguably more significant for the entertainment economy
It is generative gaming
This is there no code de ine
No code no game engine
No prerenrenasasts
You just typed a text prompt
And it generates a fully interactive three d world complete with game play mechanics
Physics
Everything in real time
Yeah
People were literally creating knock offseelto games and grpth of dotal clones instantly
And google trying to play a cool saying
Oh
This is just an early research ch view
But the financial market did not buy that spin at all traditional video game stocks slid
Significantly
This week because the implication is so obvious
If i can dream up a custom game and play it instantly
Why do i need a massive studio to spend five years and five hundred million dollars developing it
So if spectacle becomes chip
Because anyone can make a block buster movie or an open world game
Where the actual value go
If do money has to go
Somewhere it goes to trust
And it goes to distribution
Which is exactly by the most important entertainment story
This week isn't even about ai
It is about a youtube
Buccuper
Mark Fish
Buluck
Yeah
He finally releases his film iron lung
He souself financed no studio marketing
No traditional pr machine
And the numbers are just staggering
He spent three million dollars to make it
And it pulled a forty three million dollar return hitting number one of the box office
But the metric that really blew my mind was the revenue split
He reportedly kept fifty percent of the box office
That is the paradigm shift right there a traditional hollywood director gets a few points on the back
And if they are incredibly lucky marketplayer got fifty percent
Because he didn't need the studio's distribution machine
He is his own distribution machine
He has seventy four million subscribers
So if we connect these dats for a second yeah
Bke dance is giving everyone the tools to make the movie and arcculier just prove that you don't need the studios to sell the movie
The entire middle man economy of hollywood is basically being squeezed to death from both ants
It is a classic pincer move
The gatekeepers are actively losing the gate
The complex tools of creation are democratized
And the massive channels of distribution are personalized
It really is the creator economy graduating into blockbustereeconomy
While
While creators are clearly winning
The fans are
While the fans are kind of losing their minds
We have to mention the imbb war
This is such a perfect example of modern tribilism in the digital age
Breaking bad versus game of thrones
It is incredibly petty
But i love it
So the breaking bad episode aussimandiis has been the undisputed perfect ten rating on imdb for thirteen years unbeitable
Right up
Until the new game of thrones prequal l in night ted the seven kingdoms stopped an absolute banger of an episode
The breaking bad fans got insecure about their spot and started review bombing the prequal in the throne fans immediately retaliated by bombing aussie mandias
They actually got it to drop to a nine point
Nine
It is just mutually assured destruction
But the punch line is the best part of the whole story
While these two massive fenders were busy destroying each other
The six feet under finanally quietly floated up
And took the overall number one spot
It's pure poetic justice and frankly six feet under absolutely deserves it
It really does
But you know this whole idea of rewriting history brings us to another form of up
People we have talked a lot about digital disruption
But i want to piit us to the physical world
Because
Because that fie horenergy seems to be manifesting in the actual quest of the earth
Right now
It has been a brutally violent month for the planet
Yeah
We're seeing what climate scientists are now calling a voltile baseline
Exactly the old historical averages just do not apply anymore
Look at the tragedy we saw on the crn navta
The avalanched cacasle vata
That story really oome apeople dead
And what makes it so heartbreaking
Is that it was a group of reckless teenagers
Ignoring warning signs
This was a group of highly experienced bcouncountry skiers
Mostly mothers and wise from the barea
There is all the prep they check the reports
They had the right gear and the mountain still slid a slab
The size of a football field just gave way
It is a terrifying reminder
That our historical data regarding safety is becoming less and less reliable
We are seeing these so called hundred year events happening every three years
Now the environment is just becoming more energetic and far more unpredictable
You see that same unpredictability with the infrastructure too like highway one in california
The region slide finally reopened only to close again just days later due to massive mudslides
There's even that impatient driver who got completely stuck trying to navigated
And you see in the ocean
As well i read this wild report from noa and the university
Itself florida about the lg blooms
It's a gasm belt
Yeah
They aren't just saying there's more lg
This year they are concluding that the ocean is fundamentally changed its chemical composition to actively prefer slum
It is a complete regime shift
They track a thirteen point four percent annual growth in these macro ale bloooms
The ocean is warming agriculture run office increasing
And the water is effectively turged into a giant petree desh sh fafavors these massive choking leads over traditional marine life
It feels like the earth is rewriting its own source code at the exact same time
Where rewriting our digital code and honestly even the distant past doesn't safe from being written
We have to mention the spinsauurdisdiscovery the the hell errent right we all gw p thinking sposaurs was this majestic aquatic swimmer like the crocoddile of the dinosaur world we did
But this new discovery in niger or they found
Found fossls a thousand kilometers away from any ancient coastline completely flips that narrative
It wasn't a graceful swimmer
At all it was awaiting predator basically a forty footstorc with a giant symutar crossed on its head just standing in the shallows
Picking fish of the water
It is great reminder that scientific fact is very often just current theory waiting to be updated precisely the past changes as we learn more just as our future changes
As the climate shifts and speaking of shifting our horizons
Some of us are actually getting off this voltile rock art of us
The second march six we are finally going back
It feels very appropriate for twenty twenty six breaking the ceiling moving forward
I mean it is the first time humans of left eards orcrew is since nineteen seventy two
The crew is commita rewise man
Victorglever
Ver chstinicoke and german me hansome
It is a crew of historic
First
The first person of color
The first woman and the first non american to ever go beyond low earthorbit it is a six hundred thousand mile loop
They aren't actually landing on the moon
This now
But they're proving that we can still do the incredibly hard things
And i think we really need that proof right now with everything feeling so chaotic on the ground
We need to remember that expansion and exploration are still possible
Speaking of expansion and cultural banchons specifically
We really cannot ignore what happened at the superboall half time show this week ad bunny
This wasn't just a concert
It felt like a coronation
The first half time show headlined via atininsosolar artiin
And it perforformed almost entirely spspish
And the viewership was absolutely for ass of a one and twenty million people tuned in it really solitified a cultural shift
We have been tracking for years
Now latin american culture isn't a nish crossver event
Anymore it is mainstream american culture
He brought out icky
Martin
Daddy
Ankee is this massive celebration of heritage
And honestly it fell like another other old rule biting
That does the unwritten rule that you have to sing in english to command the biggest stage in america
That rule is just gone
Just like the rule that you need a major movie studio to have a block buster
It is all connected let's wrap up with sports today
Because the winter olympics s malanan are officially closing tomorrow
And always just honestly is getting slately ridiculous at this point
They're finfinitely wing ing
Seventeen goold medals that beats their own previous record for a country with a population smaller than minnesota to dominate the world
World stastlike that it is statistically ababserd
But the olympic s story that really got me emotional
And i think this connects beautifully back to that firehorse theme of drinking barriers was nzzonyon the chinese speedskater
Yes
He completely shattered the fifteen hundred metre record
The first asian athlete to ever win gold in that specific event
And his quote afterwards really stuck with me
He said
It felt like there was a mountain in front of me
And today was the day
I finally got over it
That is beautiful
And on the slightly lighter side of the skating world
We definitely have menmenpanoora show the man of many jackets
Yes
This incredible choographer based in kees
He currently coaches sixteen different skaters from thirteen different countries
The broadcasting cameras caught him constantly changing its team jacket every few minutes swapping from france to the us
To mexico to georgia
He is basically a mercenary for art
He had a great quote to he said as soon as they step on the ice
I'm in their world
I have to respect the hussle absolutely and just quickly back in the us
The nfl season wrapped the seaoks one
The super bowl sam donalald redemption ark is finally complete going from seeing ghosts on the field to winning the ring
But honestly the defence se won that game for them yeah
They did and a much more serious note in the sports world
Looking at soccer finishes junior yeah
The rail major versus been feet to match another awful racism incident vinishes accused the benthica player of using slers and the game actually stopped for ten minutes
It is his eighteenth th formal complaints
Since twenty
Twenty two
It is a sobbering reminder that for all our technological progress
Some of the very ugly parts of human nature remain incredibly stubbering
It is a fight that just keeps happening year after year
It really is
是的是的
So stepping back
We have covered ai agents
Guunfuu robots
Genertive video space
Travel Lg
Blooms and the total collapse of the hollywood studio system
What does all mean for the listener
Well as we sign off
I actually want to take us back to today's day
Febbruary twenty first the historical iniversary right february twenty first to to daday day president nixon landed in beijing
It as the very first time a us president visited the peoplees or public
It shattered decades of strict isolation
And it completely resh tape the global power structure
Overnight
It was a moment
Where the entire world opened up exactly
And here we are today in twenty
Twenty six
The year of the firehorse and the world is opening up all over again
But in a totally different way
It is opening up to artificial agency
To synthetic paralities
And to these new unpredictable biological truths is speaking chchinese history
I love that the art of the week mention ed the source material is you behonged in truwhich
Which is such a perfect parallel esabahhang painted his ororses not as symbols of rigid imperial power
But as symbols of freedom and resilience and his paintings
Theyalways galloping their mains are flying
And their hooves are barely
Even touching the ground a nation motion world in motion
And that actually brings me to our final thought for the listener
Today the talked about open club moving from just talking ing
Acautually acting we talked about markerolier moving from just influencing an audience to owning his own distribution
The old verging theme of this firehorse year is agency
The technology is no longer waiting for permission to act the creators aren't waiting for permission to publish
So the real question for you the listener
It in this new landscape are you still just talking about what you want to do
Are you sitting around waiting for a gakekeeper
A boss
A publisher or studio
To give you the green light
Because the clear lesson of twenty
Twenty six
So far is that the gaykeepers are gone and the tools to build
Whatever you want are already in your hands
Are you waiting or are you act
That is definitely something to two on this week happy year to the firehorse
Everyone go out there and makes up and happen
Thanks for listening
Catching in the next deep dive
