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When i was a kid
The disaster we word about most was a nuclear war
That's why we had a barl like this down on our basement filled with kens of food and water
When the nuclear tch came
We were supposed to go down
Stairs
Hunker down and eat out of that barrel
Today
The greatest risk of global catastrophie doesn't look like this
Instead
It looks like this
If anything kills over ten million people in the next few decades
It's most likely to be a highly infectious virus rather than a war not missiles
But microbes now part the reason for this is that we've invested a huge amount in nuclear deterrence
But we've actually invested very little in a system to stop an epidemic
We're not ready for the next epidemic
Let's look at ebola
I'm sure all of you read about it in the newspaper lots of tough challenges
I followed it carefully through the case analysis tools we use to track polio arvication
And as you look at what went on the problem wasn't
That there was a system that didn't work well enough
The problem was that we didn't have a system at all in fact
There are some pretty obvious key missing pieces
We didn't have a group of epedemiologists ready to go
Who would have gone seen what the the disease was see how alhearted spread the case reports came on paper
I was very delayed before they were put online
And they were extremely inaccurate
We didn't have a medical team ready to go
We didn't have a way preparing people now medicine saffronteers did a great job orchestrating volunteers
But even so we were far slower
Than we should have been getting the thousands of workers into these countries
And a large epidemic would require us to have hundreds of thousands of workers
There was no one there to look at treatment approaches
No one to look at the diagnostics
No one to to figure out what tools should be used as an example
We could have taken the blood of survivors processed and put that plasma back in people to protect them
But that was never tried
So there was a lot that was missing
And these things are really a global failure
The who is funded to monitor epidemics
But not to do these things
I talked about now in the movies
It's quite different
There's a group of handsome
Some epidemianologists ready to go
They move in
They saved the day
But that's just pure hollywood
The failure to prepare
Could allow the next epidemic to be dramatically
More devastating than ebola
Let's look at the progression of ebola over this year about ten thousand people died and nearly all we're in the west afrhaan countries
There's three reasons
Why it didn't spread more
The first is there was a lot of heroic ic work by the health workers
They found the people
And they prevented more infections
The second is the nature of the virus ebolit does not spread through the air
And by the time you're contagious
Most people are so sick
That their are beridden third
It didn't get into many urban areas
And that was just luck
If it gotten into a lot more urban areas
That case numbers would have been much larger
So next time we meind not be so lucky
You can handle virus
Where people feel well enough
While they're 't infectious
That they get on a plane
Or they go to a market
The source of the virus could be an atural epianamc
Like ebollla or could be bioterrorism
And so there are things that would literally make things a thousand times worse
In fact
Let's look at a model of a virus spread through the air like the spanish flu back in one thousand nine eighteen
So here's what would happen
It would spread throughout the world very very quickly
And you can see there's over thirty million people die from that epidemic
So this is a serious problem
We should be concerned
But in fact
We can build a really good response system
We have the benefits of all the science and technology that we talk about here we've got cell phones to get information from the public
And get information out to them
We have satellite maps
Where we can see where people arenn
Where they're moving to have advances in biology that should dramatically change to turn around time to look at a pathogen
And be able to make drugs and vaccines that fit for a pathogen
So we can add tools
But those tools need to be put in to an overall global health system
And we need preparedness the best lessons i think on to get prepared or again what we do for war for soldiers
We have false time waiting to go
We have reserves that can scale us up to large numbers
A nato has a mobile unit that can deploy very rapidly
Nato does a lot of war games to check our people well trained to the understand about fuel and logistics and the same radio frequencies
So they are absolutely ready to go
So those are the kinds of things
We need to deal an epidemic a what are the key pieces
At first is we need strong health systems in pocountritries
That's where mothers can give birth safely kids can get all their vaccines es
But also where will see the outbreak very early
On we need a medical reserve courore lots and people who ve got the traineum in background
Who are ready to go with the expertise
And then we need depair those medical people with the military taking advantage of the military 's ability to move fast through logistics and secure areas
We neem to do simulations
Germ games
Not war games
So that we see where the holes are the last time
A germ game was done in the united states
Was back in two thousand one
And it didn't go so well so far
The scores
Germs one
People's zero
Finally we need lots of advanced rnd and areas of vaccines and diagnostics
There are some big breakths like the dino associated virus that could work very very quickly
Now i don't have an exact budget for what this would cost
But i'm quite sure
It's very modest compared to the potential harm
The world bank estimates that if we have a worldwide flu epidemic global wealth will go down by over three trillion dollars
And we'd have millions and millions of deaths
These investments offer significant benefits beyond just been ready for the epidemic
The primary health care
The r nd
Those things would reduce global health equity and make the world more just as well as more safe
So i think this should absolutely be a priority
There's no need to panic
We don't have to horcamps of the spaettear go down into the basement
But we need to get going
Because time is not on our side
In fact
If there's one positive thing that can come out of the ebul epidemic
It's that a conserve as a early warming
A wake up call to get ready
If we start now we can be ready for the next epidemic
Thank you
