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Hello
I'm met galloway
And this is the current podcast
A growing number of canadians in the twenties and thirties are delaying parented or choosing not to have kids at all and for a second year in a row
Canada's fertilrate is at an all time low
According two statistics canada others now only one point two six children being born for every woman
Which put us in a small club of countries with a little birth rates
Places like italy
Japan and south korea
Which has faced prolonged degraphic declines
While canada population continues to grow w thanks a fifty year high and migration economomsts are warning that this dynamic present a unique set of challenges
Here to talk about those challenges in how we might address them is our mean yonneissishshe's canadian economist and colonous at the toronto star
Also the atkinson fellow on the future of workers armean
Good morning good morning man
But we know about why the canadian fertility rate continues to decline is declining for the same reasons
It's declining all over the world um more women are working harder to help their household meet costs
This is a about of forty year phenomenon um
So women are quite as uh significant workers in the labor market as men
But getting very close to it
But fifty percent of the mpmployworkforce uh is female
And the other thing that has happened
Since the pandemic is houhousing costs have soort
And it is very difficult to have a family formation
Where you could afford both childcare and mortages
But even rents are out of reach
And with these costs uh rising and women differing having children for other reasons ons are are economic in nature um and with very poor leave provisions and child care provisions
Access to affordable childcare provisions
People are just choosing to take a path on the opportunity to have children
What does this mean for a country like canada
It was interesting the oa cd potaa report not so long go
And it's had declining ftility rates
But the prosperity of future generations at risk that's unserious
Yeah
I mean
You know we've probably been talking about the debt
Wewere passing on to our kids
That has been financial in governmental in nature
This is the real debt
And it is being handed handed off to a whole new generation of people
That are having a lot of difficulty
Just doing the things that being human should be
Because we're not supporting uh is supporting each other enough
But i have to say that even in ination where and policies are really generous
We're seeing falling frutility right tes is it's
It's socisociexperiexperiment that is playing out right now
And it's happening all over the world
And i'm not sure
It's a terrible thing
But it is certainly going to be a challenging thing
And it's going up to a loggthat we have have in the eeomomwhich is that
That we aa plulababuh h
That has been the case for forty years
We're now moving into a prolonged period
Ity of time
When workers are actually going to be very valuable resources
Because you can't put money to work without workers
One of the things
That
That report from the oec d said
Um is that the shrinking working populations could lead to aging societies
They play significant social and economic pressures on governments
Notably to increase expenditres on pension and health services
So for our economy
And me tell me a bit more about this
What do you see is the impact of this
Oh Yeah
We're going to be spending more on the care economy uh
When you've got the smallest working age hort we've had in sixty years and actually turning around
And saying more of these people are going to need more help
Did you know the fastest growing element of the population is those aged eighty years of age and older not all of them need care um
But a growing number of a growing number will need care
And so you know we got the gmillion
People that are currently age fifty to sixty five
They're going to in the next fifteen years
They're going to about the category of being senior
Most seniors don't work some do
But they don't work when they're eighty by a large
So the math doesn't work
We're going to need more immigration
But we're going in this ghappbing councountries throughout the global north
Wherever there was a baby boom after the second world war
This is the story
That's playing out as the grooming age age
So that we have more immigration
But that is causing another casade of political problems
As we're seeing right now as we say the government
The government has fractious uh uh times that had politically and difficult times economically coming up
Now it's going to say that the government to mean in this country
Using the political impacts of it
Right now worwe're daldown the numbers of temporary foreign workers
There is great political pressure ers do that in part
Because houhouissusues another issues that are raised
What do you make of the capps in the economy
That
That might create
If we
If if if 're going to be facing those pressures
Because of a declining breath rate
Yeah It's
It's going to be really difficult for us to get our heads around
It look as i said
Before we have had forty years of effectively labor surpluses people's consciousness don't turn around
And this matter ter of a few years
And we had this extraorary ary eent ent closing an economy
And then reopening it because the suackdrop was this tightening labour market because
Because acaccordinary retiorary um
And yes we're taking in more temporary foreign workers three times
As many as the immigrance we brought
And so this is a very weird way to build the economy in this society of the future um the back ts of the permanently temporary
Yes we are walking that back
But this mostly performance are right now we are still superreliant on the permanently temporary
And so we ve got some very heavy duty kind this ethical and meda
You know what is society for
What is the economy for questions to grapple with because the last forty years are not predicorof the next next years years
And we are an unchurted waters
E lon muse says
That birth declines one of the biggest risks to ciciilizzhe himself has at least eleven children
He says
That
That he's one of the people who supports this idea of being a pronatatalist
I mean we should all have have lots of kids
And that that will help save the economy
What do you make of that
对对对 Well
You can't have lots of kids without having very generous supports
You can't have lots of kids without having affordable houthings
So that everybody doesn't have to work to live
Um per household we've gone from one person
And get household being the major bread earnner to a minimum of two
To get anywhere mto a comfortable standard of living
And i'm not talking about afflute
I'm just talking not going hungry
And not worrying about where you going to live next
And
And you know it's
It's terrific to be enatallist
But even in those places
Where countries do provide generous parental live
Policies do provide generous supports
So that the working age population isn't spending all of its time providing unpaid care um um
I are too young to old and to sick to work
Even in those countries were seeing birth rates fall all um
And i think it's got something to do with the fact that we're asking women to be just like men
But we don't want them to be just like men
And we don't want them to be just live next in the economy
But we want them to keep doing what they've always been doing elsewise se
It's
It's just the math doesn't work the most precious resource we have is time
And we
We have not figured out
Yet how to allocate it between the things that drive the economy
And the things we need to do as human
So people have mean any number reasons when they decide
Whether or not they're going to have kids
Whether they're going to have a family
Whethey're going pumore than one child
What is it just finally i guess you see these programs
I mean baby bonuses
And would have you um
But there is also a push four greater ettrer more afforforable housing esettrc um
What would move the needle
Do you think
嗯 Well
I'm not sure
We need to move the needle
But we need to do as treat people
As if they're important
You know like you've got the smallest working age cohorart
You've seen in sixty years
But less than half the pace
The economic growth as a background
You're asking this smallest working age cohort to pay the bills
Where the the care that's needed plus do more unpaid care
We're going to half to ask ourselves
How do we wish to help these people
So that are economies don't share but less grow um
And i'm not sure that the child um part of it like i want
I want to have grandchildren
I want my kids to feel like they have kids don't get me wrong
But i'm not sure that this i'm unbelieved able focused on having women have making more babies is the right strategy and an error
Where the richest countries in the world are dealing with shinking labor forces and more antipathy towards bringing in newcomers
Who are not like deep original the native uh usirets and uh say say that aaququds
Because i'm sure
The indigenous populational listening are kind of rolling their eyes
My point here is that we need to do better buy one another we have to start treating each other as the precious resource we are which is unlike money
And we've been chasing money not people for the last forty years
It's going to take a while to change our minds
About what is valuable
It's philosopgo way to end
I mean
Thank you very much
My great pleasure to be with you
Things
Army
Yonyusian is a canadian economist and colomist of the toronto star
She is also an atkins and fellow on the future of workers
What do you make of what she was saying in terms of how we address this um
And there are a couple of different streams of the issue is she's put it forth
But i mean the reality is according to stats can um canadas fertility ate ate is at don't not all time low
Why is that and what do we do about it
Your thoughts welcome you can email us
The current and cbcc dot ca
We did a documentary about this
A while aggo in terms ms well again
And this is about the cost of living
We could just around other pressures
That people face um just is why wouldn't
Wouldn't have
Have children
We could put that up fyou
You hear as well again and but again
Any thoughts in this email is the current at cbc dot ca
嗯
